Probabilistic risk analysis using ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators

The concepts of system load and capacity are pivotal in risk analysis. The complexity in risk analysis increases when the input parameters are either stochastic (aleatory uncertainty) and/or missing (epistemic uncertainty). The aleatory and epistemic uncertainties related to input parameters are handled through simulation-based parametric and non-parametric probabilistic techniques. The complexities increase further when the empirical relationships are not strong enough to derive physical-based models. In this paper, ordered weighted averaging operators (OWA) are proposed to estimate the system load. The risk of failure is estimated by assuming normally distributed reliability index. The proposed methodology for risk analysis is illustrated using an example of nine-input parameters. Sensitivity analyses identified that the risk of failure is dominated by the attitude of a decision-maker to generate OWA weights, missing input parameters and system capacity.